Dynamic Belief Elicitation

نویسندگان

چکیده

At an initial time, individual forms a belief about future random outcome. As time passes, the may obtain, privately or subjectively, further information, until outcome is eventually revealed. How can protocol be devised that induces individual, as strict best response, to reveal at outset his prior assessment of both final and information flows he anticipates and, subsequently, what receives? The provide with payoffs depend only on realization reports. We develop framework design such protocols, apply it construct simple elicitation mechanisms for common dynamic environments. general: we show strategyproof protocols exist any number periods large sets. For these more general settings, build family based hierarchy choice menus, approximated by this family.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Econometrica

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0012-9682', '1468-0262']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta15293